Erzgebirge Aue - Fortuna Düsseldorf

Both teams did well before the break, Düsseldorf got a narrow home win to Sandhausen while Aue had a lot of work if they got a Point in derby to Dresden. They came from behind with only 10 men but they managed to equalize in the end. Of course this was maybe a bit lucky but it was rather important for them anyway. The situation is very difficult at the moment with only 16 Points they have to get here something otherwise they should be longer at the bottom and in red zone. On the other side Düsseldorf's aim was more to get involved into promotion race before the season but the truth is that they are far away. Of course they did a bit better in the past matches but this was not all well. They had a lot of work to do and their play is very limited. For this season they should not calculate with an upper place.

Aue is still winless since three matches and they want to give their fans some back above all for the last home match where they got trashed from Fürth 2-6. Compared to the match in Dresden Coach Götz has to change two times. As with Diring the central midfield player is suspended here after his yellow red card against Dresden. For him will play Fink this position but he should think more defensive and overall his task is defensive minded today. Maybe Götz wants to get much more compact as in the last home game. The next change is in offensive as he mentioned under the week that striker Sylvestr returns into starting lineup today. Because Janjic was very average in Dresden and could not convince his Coach and he should be the one who much on bench for Sylvestr. After a lot of problems in defensive line it is very good for them that they have no problems because in the past with suspension and injuries they must change a lot but today they can bring on the same as in last game. This can be an additional Point for them.

Aue's opponent has a lot of problems with their squad and Coach Büskens can not count on a lot of players. New injured are Gianniotas and Bellinghausen who got injured this training week. The others are Bomheuer, Kenia, Schmidtgal and Bodzek, Reisinger (suspended from club side), none of these travelled to Aue. This gives Büskens less options but he should be able to bring 18 mens to Aue. This means also that youngster Weber is on bench and maybe also last winning goal scorer Bance who had a long trip with his national team in the past week. Therefore in attack Büskens counts on Benschop and Hoffer today what should be not so a good idea as Aue defending deep as both needs space for their play as they are very fast. Despite the injury problems some options are still there, Halloran can be one also Lambertz is one for the wing. Central can be Paurevic and in central back is Latka of course set to play but beside him is open, Soares or Malezas fight for the last place there.

I am not very convinced about Düsseldorf's play in the past and I  was very surprised that Bookmakers put Aue with such a HC up above all at home. Of course the odd is less as it went down but I think it is still worth. Aue is a team who fights big at home and it is always very hard for the opponents to play there. Düsseldorf is also known as weak traveller, so why should I miss this good HC. Home win for me.

Recommend Bet: Erzgebirge Aue AHC +0,25 @ 1,75 (3Units)

Borussia Dortmund - Bayern München

Top match of the Round !!!!

Both giants meet each this evening but both have some problems above all Dortmund in defense. They miss almost the whole defensive line here and this can be a very important fact but Coach Klopp think about it to solve this with some other players. Motivation should not the problem here as all are very hot. On the other side Bayern has Ribery out maybe longer what is some weakness in their offensive play but a lot of great replacements are in their squad. So not such a problem for Coach Guardiola.

Statistic:

- Dortmund was the only team who beat Bayen Munich and Pep Guardiola this season (Supercup).
- Bayern could not win since 6 matches in Dortmund (0-2-4).
- But Bayern won both important matches in the past to Dortmund (Cup and CL Final).
- Bayern Munich is unbeaten since 37 matches, their last defeat was 1-2 to Leverkusen 13 month ago.
- Dortmund lost their last 2 matches (CL and League), 3 in a row at least 2010 !!!
- But if they lost 3 in a row, always Bayern Munich was involved as one of their opponents.
- Dortmund miss a lot with Subotic, Hummels, Schmelzer, Pisczek and Gündogan.
- Bayern with Ribery, Schweinsteiger, Shaqiri and Pizarro also some.
- Dortmund's last lose to Bayern was 2010 with 1-3 but it was in Munich.
- 25 times could Dortmund kept a clean sheet to Bayern, against no other team more !!
- Bayern has the weakest record against Dortmund at the moment.
- In the last 10 meetings, Bayern conceded always, and in 9 Dortmund took the lead.
- Bayern's highest win in BL ever was to Dortmund with 11-1
- BvB lost from the last 7 home games against Bayern only one (1-5 2009).
- In 11 meetings, Bayern won only 2 but conceded 5 defeats.
- Jürgen Klopp won nothing from his first 10 BL-games against Bayern, now unbeaten since 6.

Eintracht Braunschweig - SC Freiburg

After over 20 years Eintracht Braunschweig ist back in „Bundesliga“ but it looks like that this will be a very hard season for them. Above all the first Rounds showed already that they are a bit away from other teams and if they have not the luck on their side or some of the players have not the form they need it is hard to win matches. Of course they did some steps in the past and won twice but overall it was a bit of luck maybe. Overall they have to invest much more as other teams to get good results as the players are only average. The next problem is if players got injured they have not an equal replacement immediately. Some weak points are keeper position, offensive midfield and maybe attack. If Bellarabi who is on loan from Leverkusen has not his best day, the team is much weaker anyway. Maybe we can put some others on the same level as Bellarabi but only a few. Therefore they must fight big for every point and if they do not work as team they get nothing.

A lot was written during the first Rounds from SC Freiburg. Nevertheless they are in big crisis at the moment but it was expected as well. This was mentioned in several posts before. They can not replace so many key players within a few month. A lot of players arrived but not all did well, of course some of them found their form in the past matches but with a lot of matches in EL, Cup and league it is very hard to put a fresh and hungry team on the pitch. This happen often in the past and Coach Streich is not very pleased about the performances, maybe he is very happy if the EL ends in December that he can take the focus more on league and against relegation battle. Therefore this is an important match for them against a direct rival. It is a six point game for them and they should not lose this one not to fall further. Maybe the international break was to the right time and they can refresh and prepare for this important match. But overall it is not easy at the moment according to their long injury list. Some players are sure out and some are doubtful but they want face some late fitness tests. One positive sign can be that they are much stronger on the road as at home were they could not win so far.

I am very keen on Freiburg today, they should not lose this one as it is a very important. The stats are also on their side because Braunschweig could only win 3 from 21, therefore I hope that this continues. Both teams with some personal problems but I expect more a very close match with big fight from both sides. This one can be also a very difficult one for Braunschweig because I do not think that Freiburg open here too much and Braunschweig did much better against teams who try to control the game and make it as well. Freiburg stands deep here and this gives the fast wings or key players from Braunschweig who are very fast not much space what can be an important factor here. But it is not sure if Bellarabi can play as he was injured under the week and has problems to train. Maybe they get him fit but it would be hard for him today. I go with the power Coach Steich and his team today.

Recommend Bet: SC Freiburg AHC +0,25 @ 1,93 (3 Units)

Eintracht Frankfurt - FC Schalke 04

From hero to zero or from high flying into big trouble. This is simple the way from Eintracht Frankfurt at the moment. They had really two great seasons recently. First one was in 2.Bundesliga with promotion at the end and also last one with getting an international spot. This season it is much different to the other seasons. They are back to normal business with a lot of problems and maybe it is lack of experience to handle all the competitions well. In EL and Cup they did well and played much better as in Bundesliga, maybe they are much more motivated for these competitions and invest much more as in Bundesliga. Therefore all the power goes into Cup matches while in BL-matches they are very tired and have not the fitness. The BL-results showed this very well, to begin they were able to get at least Points on the road but in the past matches they were absolutely down. Overall they are winless at home after 12 Rounds what is incredible bad. The home performances were not always bad but they were not able to take advantage from their good play in the first 75 minutes. Normally this is almost a must for them if you take a look at the stats from the last 15 minutes of Frankfurt. They are the worst team in this period and they conceded a lot of late goals what costs them a lot of Points. This can be a key fact due to their tiredness from EL matches and also maybe a head problem from some players. Additional the many injuries they had are of course a problem too. They have not the squad from Bayern Munich to replace all well.

Always some trouble around Schalke and after the last matches it comes up more and more. Above all the team is not in good shape at the moment. Too many mistakes in recent matches allowed not a better outcome. Above all the defensive line stability is very shaky and allowed many easy goals. If Höwedes, Matip or Santana no one played well at central back, also keeper Hildebrand. But what should Coach Keller do, he has no other players and has to work with them and maybe solve the problems. Also a lot of injuries helped him not much in the past, in central midfield he misses Höger while Neustädter is not in his best shape. In offense not many alternatives left, wing Farfan was a big miss but recovered already from injury, and both strikers had a lot of problems. First choice striker Huntelaar still out longer, Szalai replaced him more or less, sometimes better, sometimes weaker but he had also a lot of problems with illness and so on. In last match Boateng gave the lone attacker and lead his time with two goals to the win over Bremen. But they had hard times and must come from behind again. Of course this speaks for the team spirit but it is not all well.

The national break let Frankfurt reload their batteries and they should be much fresher as in recent matches. This should help them to get a good opportunity to fight for the first home win. Of course Schalke on the other side did well on the road and they are playing for fourth place with some other teams. Therefore I expect an open match with big fight from both but I believe in Frankfurt here as they are closer to the win according to stats. Moreover we should take in mind that they played already both giants Bayern and Dortmund and this is an additional sign for their weak home stats.

Recommend Bets: Eintracht Frankfurt AHC 0 @ 1,98 + OVER 2,75 @ 1,86 (each 3 Units)

1.FC Nürnberg - VfL Wolfsburg

After Verbeek stands on the sideline for Nürnberg he got only one Point from three matches and fall down to the bottom of the table with his team. It looks like that nothing has chanced so far, really? This is not correct so far, if you watch the last two matches you can see a big difference in tactic and style of play from Nürnberg. They use a much more offensive system as in past matches / weeks / years. This is the new style from Coach Verbeek, this is exactly he wants to play in the future. Nevertheless he has not much time because with the fall down to the end of the table he need immediately results to come out of the red zone. Despite the last two defeats to Freiburg 0-3 and Gladbach 1-3 Nürnberg played quit good and they should have received much more than nothing. In both matches they were the better side and they created a lot of good opportunities but it has long been a weakness of Nürnberg to score goals. Additional a clear goal was not counted against Gladbach and therefore it is very hard for them to win matches. Nevertheless the offensive play from them was very good and not even Freiburg or Gladbach had an idea how to play against them. They press from beginning on, both defensive line and midfield row plays very high and let the opponent not much space and time to open their game. This system is very intense and powerful and therefore they were always tired after 70 minutes and both recent opponents took advantage of this. If Coach Verbeek finds the right balance in his system it is very good and Nürnberg looks very good. Even if they can use only a few of their good chances it is also better and the last 20 minutes not such a problem overall. But they are on the right way, despite no wins so far.

On fire, of course Wolfsburg is the team with a great run from 4 winning matches in a row. Only Bayern Munich has the same stats but they are by far the best team in BL. Therefore it is very interesting how Coach Hecking can build a good and balanced team who plays better as last season. More than 4 wins in a row had they only in their best season where they won the title in the end. But if you take a look in their stats it looks like that it has changed only a bit. Last season they were terrible at home and had better matches on the road, also result wise. This season it is more at home where they collected their points and made better matches as on the road. Nevertheless they are in form before the national break but now after the break, could they hold their form? No one knows !!! But overall they have a great squad and they should be able to fight for the fourth place this season with teams from Gladbach and Schalke. This match can be very friendly as with Hecking, Pogatetz, Hasebe, Esswein, Klose and Polak meets some player his former club. But in some interviews it is already mentioned that for the 90 minutes there will be no friendship. Wolfsburg wants the win here but the record is not the best above all to Nürnberg where they had a lot of problems in the past. From 22 matches between these two sides could Wolfsburg win only 5 !!! Maybe some count on Heckings knowledge he had from Nürnberg but the style of Nürnbergs play is much different now after Verbeek arrived. So no advantage at all. Not many changes expected, the winning team from the match against Dortmund should get the next chance here, only Diego is back from injury. For him Caligiuri must on bench but only if he is 100% ready.

Yes I know, all are for Wolfsburg here but I am not so sure about. Nürnberg played really great in their recent two matches and they were in both the better side. Additional they had a lot of bad luck and also were not able to use the good opportunities they had. Sooner or later they get rewarded for their effort they do. Maybe this Wolfsburg who is in great form comes to the right time here, they beat Dortmund but after this match two weeks break what maybe cost them their form. Logical is sure Wolfsburg win here but I doubt and the stats are not in their favor here as well. Therefore Nürnberg is my choice here.

Recommend Bet: 1.FC Nürnberg AHC +0,25 @ 2,02 (3 Units)

Facts to 1.BL - Round 13 !!!

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VfB Stuttgart - Bor. M'Gladbach

- Since Season 95/96 could Gladbach win only 2 from 30 matches against Stuttgart
- In this Period they are 2-11-17 against VfB
- Stuttgart's new Coach Schneider lost only 1 from 9 BL-matches as Coach.
- He has an average from 1,78 Points / game.
- Favre's team won all three recent matches, this happen at least 2011-2012.
- Gladbach has one of the best offensive lines beside Hoffenheim and Dortmund.
- Only 84/85 they scored more (37) as actual (28) after 12 Rounds.
- Stuttgart scored the most goals in the first 15 minutes (7) from all BL-Teams.

DEF Rüdiger is back for VfB after suspension and can replace Haggui here. Back wing Rausch still with some slight injury problems can be replaced by Sakai. Therefore with Cacau, Didavi and Boka they miss 3 players for this match.

The situation for the central back is getting better for Gladbach this time as with Brouwers and Nordtveit are two players back in training. They are in the squad but it is not sure if Favre change as the others made it very well in the past. Only DEF Dominguez is out injured.



Hertha BSC Berlin - Bayer Leverkusen

- Hertha lost not one of the last 7 BL-matches to Leverkusen.
- But they could win only 4 from 17 BL-matches, average from 24%
- Only in one of the last 21 BL-games against Leverkusen, Hertha did not score.
- This was on December 2007 at home where they lost 0-3.
- Hertha could only kept a clean sheet in 2 of the 14 matches this season (League/Cup).
- Both times was at home, and both wins were 1-0.
- Leverkusen has 28 Points after 12 Rounds, only 03/04 (29) and 01/02 (30) better.

Hertha BSC hopes that MID Ben Hatira can play because he has some problems at the moment. Schulz is back in training, should be in the squad for this game. Only Baumjohann miss here.

It is not out of Hyypiä give some a rest, maybe DEF Spahic who played under the week with his national team. Also some alternatives are around to change some. Nevertheless he can not count on Reinartz, Hilbert and 2nd keeper Palop who are all injured.



FC Augsburg - 1899 Hoffenheim

- Both teams are even after 4 duels (1-2-1).
- Augsburg won only one of their last 7 BL-matches (1-1-5).
- In all 7 past BL-home-matches Augsburg conceded at least a goal.
- This is a new negativ record in their BL history.
- 1899 Hoffenheim conceded in all recent 18 matches at least one goal.
- This is also a new negativ record for them.
- But some good news as well, they scored in all their recent 16 BL-matches at least one.
- This is a new positiv record for them too. 


Wow, wow, wow what a luxury situation for Coach Weinzierl, no one is missing here. He can choose from all !! This was not often the case, so let's see what he brings on the pitch. He has a lot of alternatives now.

TSG 1899 has only Abraham doubtful and it is not sure if he is ready at least for this match after his injury. Interesting would be if Coach Gisdol fields three central midfield players or not. He has all to choose from .......

Energie Cottbus - FSV Frankfurt

This is an important match for both teams because both are out of form and they did not very well in the past. Maybe the national break was to the right time and they can get some energy back. Also they had to do a lot of work to get back on track and play better as before. Results are needed for both, above all Cottbus is on the bottom of the table and 3 Points away from FSV at the moment. So it will be very interesting to see what team has used the break better for preparing to this important match. Below I want to give some key facts to this encounter.


- Energie Cottbus is still unbeaten against FSV Frankfurt at home. They are 2-2-0 so far.
- But overall they could not win one of the last three. FSV won 1-0 at home and the other two matches ends with a draw.
- Energie is winless since 5 matches and they lost the last 3.
- Also FSV is winless since 4 matches, and they lost also the 3 of the 4 games !!!
- Energie Coach Schmidt is still unbeaten against FSV as with his former team Paderborn he could win 3-0 at home and played 1-1 in Frankfurt.
- FSV Coach Möhlmann is unbeaten since 7 against Energie Cottbus.
- FSV keeper Klandt played all 8 matches against Cottbus, but he will miss his first time now.
- The only win for FSV was in Dresden and from the recent 4 road matches they got only 1 Point.
- Energie is still waiting for the first win on the road, they got only 3 Points therefore it is very important to win at home.
- Many times stands the 0 for Cottbus, they are the team with the most goalless matches (8).
- Cottbus was not able to score a single goal since 5 matches !!!
- On the other side FSV could not score in the past 3 !!!

After new Coach Schmidt arrived many hope that the turnaround comes immediately but it was a bit different as the team looks not such stable as they need or maybe the self confidence was not high too. Therefore they lost to St. Pauli easy 0-3 but after this match he had two weeks to get his team back on track and they trained a lot. Maybe this break help them back on track because it is needed to get results if they want to leave the bottom of the table. At St. Pauli they had some problems in defensive with a lot of defenders unavailable but they are back. A doubt is only behind Buljat. But more important is that Banovic can move back to his preferred position and must not play again as central back. He is very important in midfield for the team and this can be a key factor here to get the offensive running again. The players are there with Stiepermann, Sanogo, Jendrisek.

On the other side FSV is on the same way as Cottbus. They started well was on a good way again this season but stopped in the last matches. The losing streak put them down and also some injury problems helped not much. For this encounter Coach Möhlmann has to think about his starting lineup as with Heubach, Leckie, Rukavytsya and keeper Klandt he has already 4 players out while Oumari, Konrad and Kapllani are 3 doubtful. Despite the bad run and many players not available they look forward and believe that they bring a good team on the pitch who can get the win here. Although the self confidence is low, they try all to bring the team back on track here.

As I said it already, an important match for both side. Cottbus at home with good results while FSV on the road were harmless. Although both are in crisis and were not able to score much in the past I am very confident that the goalless time from both teams ends here. I expect some goals here despite all problems.

Recommend Bet: OVER 2,25 @ 1,77 (3 Units)

Week Performance 08.11.-14.11.2013

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Week 45 !!!

I wanted to dedicate my Picks / Tips in an extra post. I update it always if I add something, it is only for a better view. All Picks can be seen under Betting History, Plan Picks or Tip of the Day additional. Of course, all Picks are verified !!!


German Leagues:

09.11.2013  15:30  1.BL  VfL Wolfsburg - Borussia Dortmund OVER 2,75 @ 1,85 2-1
09.11.2013  15:30  1.BL  Bayern München - FC Augsburg AHC -2 @ 1,81 (H) 3-0
09.11.2013  15:30  1.BL  Bayer Leverkusen - Hamburger SV OVER 3 @ 1,76 5-3
09.11.2013  15:30  1.BL  1899 Hoffenheim - Hertha BSC Berlin AHC +0,25 @ 2,03 2-3
09.11.2013  18:30  1.BL  Bor. M'Gladbach - 1.FC Nürnberg AHC +1 @ 1,75 (A) 3-1


Tip of the Day:

10.11.2013  20:45  Italy Serie A  Juventus Turin - SSC Neapel OVER 2,75 @ 2,02 3-0
11.11.2013  20:15  Germany 2.BL  FC St. Pauli - Energie Cottbus AHC 0 @ 1,60 (H) 3-0


Plan Picks:

10.11.2013  15:00  Italy Serie A  AC Parma - Lazio Rom AHC 0 @ 1,63 (H) 1-1
10.11.2013  15:00  Italy Serie A  Cagliari - FC Turin AHC +0,5 @ 1,88 (A) 2-1

FC St. Pauli - Energie Cottbus

At the end of the 14th match day in 2.Bundesliga plays St. Pauli at home against Energie Cottbus. Both sides produced a lot of headlines in the past week because both fired their Coach. At Cottbus it was more understandable as in Hamburg where Coach Frontzeck must go surprisingly. For home side stands Frontzeck’s Co-Coach Vrabec on the sideline who gets the trust till the winter break. Nevertheless with a win they can climb up to fifth place but they should improve a lot as the performances maybe was well at home but the results are awful. They get not much so far in their stadium what is maybe their weak performance in front of the goal. On the other side hard task for the new man on the line Stephan Schmidt who was former Coach from Paderborn. He took over in Cottbus now but he has to do a lot of work and bring the team back on track after slid down to bottom of the table because the results was all against them at the weekend.

St. Pauli’s new Head Coach Vrabec announced that he wants to change not much and he made clear from beginning to build on the work of his former chief Michael Frontzeck. Only a few minimal changes but nothing worth to mentioned. Compared to the heavy 1-4 defeat to Kaiserslautern last weekend are no major changes expected. While in defense even everything should remain the same, could start in offensive Lennart Thy instead of Florian Kringe. Both, Thy and Bartels would in this case are the wingers and Marc Rzatkowski in a central role behind the lone striker which again is likely to be called Christopher Nöthe.

Unlike Vrabec the new Cottbus Coach Schmidt must change at least one compared to the 0-1 lose to Bochum. It is only because captain Uwe Möhrle got his fifth yellow card and is suspended now for this game. For him Julian Börner moves into central defense alongside Jurica Buljat. But Buljat is still a big question mark and has to face a late fitness test what should decide his use today. Should the Croatian player can not play according to his knee problems, Markus Brzenska could defend central and give his debut after over two years absent which injury in 2.Bundesliga again. Some alternative options might be Ivica Banovic for central back who has to move back from the midfield. In midfield Caoch Schmidt, meanwhile could chance a little. Instead of the last disappointing Steven Rivic would Eriks Jendrisek or Andre Fomitschow possible options on the left wing. Meanwhile Takyi will porbably get a chance against his former club despite very weak performances in the past matches. Therefore he has to improve a lot and help Cottbus for a better offensive play. Also helping should top striker Boubacar Sanogo to stop the series from 369 minutes from Cottbus without scoring a single goal.

SC Freiburg - VfB Stuttgart

Statistic:

- From the actual BL-Teams has Stuttgart only against Augsburg a better Win-Percentage (60%)
- 57% of the 28-BL games won Stuttgart.
- Stuttgart are winless since four matches (0-3-1).
- Freiburg celebrated their first win last weekend to Nürnberg on Round 11
- But they are still winless at home this season (0-3-3).
- Stuttgart lost first time since Schneider stands on the sideline for VfB.
- VfB striker Harnik scored four goals against keeper Baumann, against no other keeper more.
- Stuttgart's defender Daniel Schwaab won all his 5 BL-matches against Freiburg so far.
- SCF is very harmless and they have only an average from 1,09 goals / game.
- Stuttgart scored more goals away from home as Freiburg overall in the first 11 Rounds.

Home team miss with Sorg suspended, Hanke and Mudjza some, VfB no important miss, maybe DEF Rüdiger who is suspended but will be replaced very well from Haggui.

Derby time the second this sunday. After VfB lost in Cup here some month ago I am very sure that they want revenge today. It speaks a lot for Stuttgart as the last matches were not very good for Freiburg above all their game under the week in EL. It was terrible what they brought on the pitch against Estoril. Additional they should be very tired here after the trip to Portugal. They have not such big rooster to replace all and this can be a good advantage for VfB here.

FSV Mainz 05 - Eintracht Frankfurt

Statistic:

- In all 9 matches is Frankfurt winless in Mainz (0-7-2).
- Mainz won only one of the recent 8 games (2-0 to Braunschweig / 1-1-6).
- Frankfurt is winless since 6 matches.
- They had 4 draws in a row after following recently to defeats.
- Eintracht is much better on the road as at home, result wise.
- At Mainz it is different, better at home, absolut weak away.
- Mainz lost 99 matches in BL so far (82-68-99).
- Eintracht Frankfurt lost 399 BL-matches away so far (155-198-399).
- 6 of the 10 BL-matches ended draw, three of them goalless.
- The only BL home win was a 3-0 on the 30.04.2011 (Elkin Soto scored twice).

Mainz without Wetklo, Müller doubtful, Baumgartlinger, Bungert and Koch. The other side with Rosenthal, Schwegler, Zambrano and Kittel.

Both teams on a huge downtrend and both are not in their best shape. Mainz maybe with a lot of problems on keeper position if Müller can not play with his back problems because replacement Wetklo got a red card against Augsburg and is suspended here. In this case a young keeper must play here. This is not the best situation as they are not the best in defensive at the moment. In offensive they need to many chances for a goal and this is the next weak point here.

For Frankfurt it must be seen how they can manage the trip to Israel and their return with the lose in bag. Maybe some of the players are a bit tired but this is an important derby as well and the fans are not allowing to lose this anyway. All must be focused as much as they can. One good thing have this match for them, they play on the road and this is much better as at home where they had a lot of problems in the past. Offensive line looks good and they can always create and scored here, defensive is a bit shaky with Zambrano out now due to suspension.

VfL Bochum - 1.FC Köln

Important match ahead as both need the win, home side against relegation and Cologne for promotion. Also it looks like that Cologne wants revenge for last season because Bochum won this game 2-1 and put Cologne out of the promotion race with this win. It was a much different situation last season as Bochum was on fire with three wins in a row while Cologne suffered a bit. This time Cologne is on fire and Bochum has some problems again. Despite this Coach Neururer wants to hurt Cologne again and hope that he can be the first with his team who can beat this team from Cologne.

Hard times are behind Bochum and it was not all well and the downtrend was stopped last weekend with the 1-0 win to Cottbus. It was an important win after running six matches winless and all hope that they made the turn around now. Of course this can give a lot of motivation and self confidence back and this is needed as well against the top team here. Under the week some players faced slight injuries and they could not train but both Tasaka and Freier return at the end of the week into team training and they are available for the game today. All in all it speaks a lot for the same starting lineup who did very well with the win in Cottbus. The squad is almost the same as last weekend, only Chaftar got injured in training this week and is out with muscle injury. His place gets Felix Bastians who is in the squad after a long time, last was at Round 1. Comeback for him and he hopes for better times now.

On Colognes side all is well and all are very happy with the situation. Ok, if you stand on top it is all good but with such a good and well balanced squad this is almost a must here. Coach Stöger provided not an insight which team he wants to field today. He has a lot to choose anyway and therefore he wants to hold the concentration from the players high. But all in all it is more expected that the same starting lineup from last win against Union Berlin starts. What should he change after the best season performance last monday? He uses again a 4-2-3-1 system with the lone striker Helmes while his former partner Ujah is again on bench. With this formation they did very well in the past matches and it worked anyway. All offensive players like Risse, Halfar and Peszko are very flexible and they change the position often what is very difficult for their opponent to defend them. Also in central midfield with Lehmann and Gerhardt it is much more stability in defensive and the result gave them the good feeling that they are very hard to crack as they allowed only 5 goals against them. This is the top number of 2.Bundesliga, all the others have already double digit. Therefore it is not possible to get back to the early produced 4-4-2 with two strikers. The team feels better with 4-2-3-1 at the moment and because the result are on their side, why change.

Bor. M'Gladbach - 1.FC Nürnberg

Bor. M'Gladbach - 1.FC Nürnberg

- Nürnberg won all three recent matches against Gladbach.
- From 6 matches on the road, Nürnberg lost only one but took 5 times a draw.
- As one of two teams (beside Hoffenheim), Nürnberg could not kept a clean sheet this season.
- Gladbach with 5-0-0 unbeaten at home so far.
- Also they scored for free in this 5 games with 17 and allowed only 3 !!!
- This is first time that Nürnberg is winless after 11 Rounds.
- Nürnberg celebrated the most wins against Gladbach with 23, against no other team more.
- Gladbach's last win was on 24.09.2011 with 1-0 in their Arena.
- Overall the Record speaks clear for Gladbach with 18-5-5 if they play at home.

-Gladbach has again some missing, with Dominguez and Brouwers two defenders are out, also midfield player Nordtveit. Daems returns into team training but this match comes to early for him.

- No missing for FCN, therefore a lot of options for Verbeek. Hopefully he choose the right guys and tactic.


If you take a look on stats this match is a clear thing for Gladbach but I am not so sure about. Nürnberg played much better on the road as at home and this can be a hard nut for Gladbach to crack here if they are not able to take the lead early. I expect a defensive minded team from Nürnberg and on the other side full power in attack form Gladbach. Maybe the counter attacks can bring some success for Nürnberg with the fast wings they have in lineup.

If you are brave, you can take the AHC +0,5 line maybe, sooner or later I expect that Gladbach fail at home. Nevertheless I take the safe option here but less odd.

Recommend Bet: 1.FC Nürnberg AHC +1 @ 1,75 (3 Units)

1899 Hoffenheim - Hertha BSC Berlin

After the bad last season 1899 Hoffenheim is on a good way already. Although the team looks very young this season but nevertheless Coach Gisdol and his team working very well at the moment and they showed in some matches that they are more as able to compete with all the teams so far. Of course some of the young players need some time to get the experience they need to play against big guys successfully. But overall they made it very good and they are more as capable so far. Coach Gisdol is always searching for the right system and tactic and he had some good ideas in the past where they could hurt Leverkusen and Bayern Munich despite losing both. The team saw that the system or tactic he gave was not so bad and they were successful in many periods of the match and this give them a lot of trust to their Coach. But still a lot of work to do and they know it very well. Offense working very well and they are third best team in league with 25 goals scored. With players like Firmino, Volland and Modeste they have excellent offensive weapons in their rows and they are very quick and all are excellent players what give them some advantage in some actions. Much worse is the defense, where a lot of young and inexperienced players gave its debut this season. With Süle, Thesker and Toljan Coach Gisdol counts sometimes on these players. The success was not always good and therefore he changes a lot in defensive line what helps not much maybe. Maybe this is the key of allowing 25 goals against them already in the first 11 Rounds. Süle overcome Vestergaard and played the last matches in central back always from beginning on. He is very proud that he gets the chance and he gave some back as he scored the equalizer in last home match against Bayern Munich but he made also the mistake with a bad assist which lead into the winning goal for Bayern Munich. Despite these mistakes Gisdol counts on the young players and he form them and allow mistakes what help the player to learn and maybe go step by step forward. It is a long process but they want to walk on like this way.

Berlin is back in Bundesliga and they started very well, they made a great job so far and stands on 7th place with 15 Points after 11 Rounds. This is very good and if they did not lose the last home match it could be one or two places better already. No one knows why they lost the last match at home to Schalke because they were the far better team and had a lot of good opportunities to score but they missed all. Schalke scored after corner where the defensive line from Hertha looked not very good. But they tried to get it done better and they invest a lot but were not able or had the luck not on their side in this match. Despite this lose the team looks very balanced and Coach Luhukay makes a great job. He motivates his team a lot and all what he does is very good. He is a hard working Coach and he tries to find out the best way to win matches with a good and balanced play. A lot of good and experienced players stand in the squad form Hertha and a lot of these players played already Bundesliga what help a lot. After the disappointing match against Schalke they want the lost Points back and in this case all their focus is on the next match in Hoffenheim where they have a good record. This they want continue and get back on track.

Of course Hoffenheim scored a lot on home soil at least almost in all twice but they conceded a lot too. Therefore they were not able to win more as one match (only against Gladbach 2-1). The offensive is always good for some goals but the defensive allow also with mistakes some goals. Moreover it is not the same match like Leverkusen or Bayern Munich where they get a lot of space because both tried to make the match and Hoffenheim can go for their good counter attacks with fast players described above. I believe Luhukay knows what to do and he counts more on a defensive minded tactic here what is hard to play for Hoffenheim and on the other side with players like Ben Hatira, Allagui, Skelbred, Schulz and Ramos he has good and fast players in his row for some counter attacks. They showed this already in some matches and I think they can do it again here.

Recommend Bet: Hertha BSC Berlin AHC +0,25 @ 2,03 (3 Units)

Bayer Leverkusen - Hamburger SV

Bayer Leverkusen - Hamburger SV

- Leverkusen lost none of the last 8 BL matches to Hamburg (4-4-0).
- In these 8 matches they were able to score 16 goals.
- HSV scored 15 goals in 6 matches on the road, best number of all teams.
- Leverkusen did not lose a single game in the past 10 at home (8-2-0).
- Hamburg won the last two road trips with a goal margin of 8-0.
- Only against Leverkusen HSV could not win a single match in recent 8 attempts.
- The last win was 2009 with 2-1 in Leverkusen.

Do not know if all players are ready or not after the CL match in the Ukraine. Sure out are Bender suspended and Reinartz injured. HSV again with problems in the defense line as with Djourou, Diekmeier and Rajkovic are three DEF players not available, moreover Rudnevs and Rincon injured too. Therefore the young guys Sobiech and Tah gets the next chance to recover from last matches maybe.


I know, I missed this one but I am very confident about the OVER here. Line is high with 3 and odds are going down or already down for this but I believe that we see goals here. HSV showed last weekend that they are not such stable with the young defending duo Sobiech and Tah. But on the other side they are scoring for free on the road while Leverkusen is always good for goals despite two matches without a goal but they have to recover here their big lose to bottom team Braunschweig. Bayer Coach for sure count on the best lineup here and he does not again such mistakes as he rotates a lot of important player out against Brausnchweig. 

Recommend Bet: OVER 3 @ 1,76 (3 units)

Bayern München - FC Augsburg

I wrote a lot of Bayern Munich and you all know the situation has changed a lot. To begin it was hard for them to get in their rhythm but they had success. After a few Rounds they dominated the match as Coach Guardiola wants but they had a lot of problems with using their good opportunities. After this phase was past the next one are there and they did very hard in the past matches above all in first half they had a lot problems and they conceded almost in all the recent matches but they understand it very well to change the tactic and some players to half time and they came always from behind and managed the win in the end. But this is not the style Guardiola like and he said that he wants to change something in the upcoming matches. No one knows what he means but we will see. Maybe some tactic things or players or whatever. All their home matches in Bundesliga was very hard work for them and they did not win a match very easy. Do not know why this happen this season but they have to improve a lot above all the fans are not very pleased about this. Also a lot of changes in lineup from game to game is not very helpful and the situation from some players who plays positions he never played before like Contento in central back and so on. Overall Guardiola has to think about his system and some of the positions of the players. Of course some players were suspended, injured or ill but he gets a lot of alternatives back. Martinez and Robben are back in squad now and Thiago is coming in the next weeks too. This means a lot to choose from and hopefully he choose the right ones and also the right tactic.

Ok Augsburg did much better as last season where they need long time to win matches and also to get Points. This tiime they have already 13 on their side and they are hungry for more. Of course but the situation is a bit different. Above all on the road they are not such good as at home and they were not able to get much, only one win in five matches. And as always they have a lot of problems to finish they good created opportunities. Both wings are very fast and should be able to bring Bayern Munich in some danger but can they if the pressure from Bayern is huge. This is the big question mark here. Nevertheless they have nothing to lose here and Coach Weinzierl traveled very relaxed to Munich, but he motivates and maybe count on a special defending tactic today. If this stands for long is the next question.

Overall Bayern Munich is by far the better side here and should win this one for the record of 37 unbeaten BL matches. At the moment they are tied with HSV but I am sure that they beat this number today. They should be hot after some disappointing home performances where they always come from behind. They want to push from beginning on and give Augsburg no chance here. Bayern had always a very weak first half and they were not able to score in this first 45 minutes. They came always in second half and started rolling. I believe that they change this today.

Recommend Bet: Bayern Munich AHC -2 @ 1,81 (3 Units)

VfL Wolfsburg - Borussia Dortmund

After a disappointing last season above all in home matches Wolfsburg changed some and they play much better now. From the first 5 home matches they won four and lost only one. This was just against bottom team from Braunschweig who celebrated their first win after long time in BL. This was a small step back to old times but they were able to walk on the right way in winning to Bremen and Frankfurt what put them in a very good situation. The aim of Wolfsburg is to get an international spot for next season because they put a lot of money into the team and therefore success is a must this season. They can not allow again a season without havening something in hand in the end. Especially the upcoming match is very important for them to see if they are able to compete with the top in the league already. The motivation should be there for sure and the stadium is sold out as well. The only problem can be the injury from playmaker Diego who got injured against Frankfurt. Nevertheless the offensive looks very strong but the defensive allow some above all against such a good offensive line like Dortmund has. At this time they have to find the right balance between offensive and defensive.

Borussia Dortmund started well and they are only one Point behind leader Bayern Munich, last season they it was much more. This gave them a lot of hope that they can compete with Bayern this season and hold the title race very open till the end of the season. Despite their CL leagues lose in midweek they are on very good condition and the pressing system from Coach Klopp works very well. All new players were good investments and good additions to the squad. Although they lost important players they look much stronger with these new guys already. In league they are doing well and with such a good offensive line they are always able to score some. Although Kuba is a big doubt after the champions league match with flu he can be replaced from Aubameang or Hofmann what should not such a big problem. In defense they have some problems as with Subotic returned a player against Arsenal who was not at 100% maybe, Sokratis played beside him and in league he played beside Hummels but Hummels was out in CL and is a doubt here too. Maybe this many chances make them a bit more prone for goals. This often changes are not very helpful to get some stability there. Also on the back wing Schmelzer was out for some matches, Drum replaced him well and now Schmelzer is back. A thing for instability in defensive line. Of course Klopp knows this as well but he minimized this problems. He puts out more the positive things of his team and demand to get back on winning track after the disappointing CL match result.

This encounter is set for goals, in all the recent four meetings Borussia Dortmund scored always 3 goals, what gave them 3 times the win, only last year it ended with a draw 3-3. Despite Wolfsburg plays without Diego, I am sure that they are able to hurt Dortmund's defensive and Dortmund with this offensive guys is always able to score one, two, three or more. Wolfsburg comes from three wins in a row and Dortmund after CL defeat .... Wolfsburg looks inform while Dortmund wants to recover, this open a lot of possibilities and goals are coming up anyway.

Recommend Bet: OVER 2,75 @ 1,85 (3 Units)

Some facts to 1.BL - Round 12

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Hannover 96 - Eintracht Braunschweig

- Braunschweig won 2 of their last 4 BL-matches.
- If only the 4 last Rounds counts, Braunschweig stands on 8 Place :))
- H96 is the only team in BL who lost the past 3 matches.
- Slomka's team kept only 1 time a clean sheet from the last 11.
- The defensive allowed 7 goals in the past two matches.
- Both teams had 10 seasons together in BL, 7 times was Braunschweig better placed.
- Hannover is in an absolutely downtrend, while Braunschweig seems on a good way.
- This is a very hot derby, the atmosphere is heavy.

Hannover 96 with some defensive problems because with Marcelo suspended, Sane suspended, Felipe, Pander, Franca injured they miss a lot there. Also Striker Ya Konan is not available. Schuld also defensive player is doubtful here. - Braunschweig must replace Reichel, Hochscheidt, Petkovic, Correia and Kratz but all are out in recent matches already.


Bayer Leverkusen - Hamburger SV

- Leverkusen lost none of the last 8 BL matches to Hamburg (4-4-0).
- In these 8 matches they were able to score 16 goals.
- HSV scored 15 goals in 6 matches on the road, best number of all teams.
- Leverkusen did not lose a single game in the past 10 at home (8-2-0).
- Hamburg won the last two road trips with a goal margin of 8-0.
- Only against Leverkusen HSV could not win a single match in recent 8 attempts.
- The last win was 2009 with 2-1 in Leverkusen.

Do not know if all players are ready or not after the CL match in the Ukraine. Sure out are Bender suspended and Reinartz injured. HSV again with problems in the defense line as with Djourou, Diekmeier and Rajkovic are three DEF players not available, moreover Rudnevs and Rincon injured too. Therefore the young guys Sobiech and Tah gets the next chance to recover from last matches maybe.


FC Schalke 04 - Werder Bremen

- S04 won all the last 4 matches to Bremen with 12-3 goals.
- Overall Schalke are unbeaten in 6 against Bremen (5-1-0).
- They won the last 3 home matches with 11-1 goals as well.
- Jens Keller won always against Bremen if he was on the sideline (Stuttgart, Schalke).
- From the last 17 BL duels Schalke has a very good record with 11-4-2).
- After the CL game it looks more and more that S04 is getting problems.

Once again Schalke 04 has some missing here and they are almost all important because they are not able to replace Huntellar, Farfan, Höger equal. Additional a lot of mistakes from experienced keeper Hildebrand too. Bremen without Petersen, Prödl and Bargfrede.

FSV Frankfurt - 1.FC Kaiserslautern

FSV Frankfurt is in downtrend after three games without a win and the mood is not the best too. They expected much more from the matches against Paderborn, Aalen and Sandhausen but they were not able to get more as a single Point out of these matches. Additional they were not able to score much in these matches, ok twice to Paderborn but in both others they had zero. Overall the situation is getting dangerous now because they are not far away from relegation zone. After harsh words from management and Coach earlier this week, they try to get their focus on the difficult taks against Kaiserslautern today. But today’s opponent is unbeaten in 7 since Kosta Runjaic stands on the sideline for the red devils. The results were all positive so far but some unlucky draws let them not climb on a promotion place. Nevertheless they want to extend this series and with a win possibly slip into the promotion ranks, because both Fürth and Berlin are now within reach. On excellent support, guests can count anyway, because approximately half of the expected 10.000 spectators will be FCK fans.     

The starting lineup of FSV will change at least at three positions. Odise Roshi had a muscle injury in training this week and will sit on the bench at best. Nils Teixeira is suspended after his yellow red card of last Sunday while Manuel Konrad returns after suspension into the squad. The position on the left back take Marcel Kandziora and Konrad is set to play as usual in central midfield. In addition, there will be probably be further changes because Möhlmann tested a 4-3-3 system at Sandhausen but against Kaiserslautern he does not apply again for sure on this. It is questionable, in particular the occupation of the central midfield, which one Möhlmann let play beside Konrad. With Kauko, Yelen, Djengoue and Heitmeier he has four alternatives available today. On the left wing is likely that Epstein gets a chance again while Nikita Rukavytsya could not convince in his first starting debut and is probably on bench. Therefore the place on the attack is free for Kapllani who is the much better choise here. This means that almost the same eleven starts which celebrated the last win to begin of October where they could delivered a convincing performance at least a half time but won 3-1 to Aue.   

The Red Devils must also change as with central defender Marc Torrejon is missing because of a muscle injury he had suffered in the game against St. Pauli last weekend. For him youngster Willi Orban will return into the starting lineup. Very shaky is the use of Marcel Gaus who could not impress in recent games but he came from FSV to FCK this summer and certainly is quite hot on the encounter with his former teammates. His replacement on the left wing Fortounis was always able to ensure a revival of Kaiserslautern’s offensive play after his substitutions. Therefore quite possible that he will receive a chance from the beginning today, while Gaus has to take place on bench against his former club. The things are clear here, FCK needs the win badly but they are not known as a good traveler and this can play a role here. The statistic is quite even between both at Frankfurt.

Week Performance 01.11.-07.11.2013

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Week 44 !!!

I wanted to dedicate my Picks / Tips in an extra post. I update it always if I add something, it is only for a better view. All Picks can be seen under Betting History, Plan Picks or Tip of the Day additional. Of course, all Picks are verified !!!


German Leagues:

02.11.2013  15:30  Germany 1.BL  Hamburger SV - Bor. M'Gladbach OVER 2,75 @ 1,85 0-2
02.11.2013  15:30  Germany 1.BL  1.FC Nürnberg - SC Freiburg OVER 2,5 @ 2,00 0-3


Tip of the Day:

02.11.2013  18:30  Germany 1.BL  Eintracht Frankfurt - VfL Wolfsburg OVER 2,75 @ 1,91 1-2
03.11.2013  17:30  Germany 1.BL  Werder Bremen - Hannover 96 AHC +0,25 @ 1,87 (A) 3-2
06.11.2013  20:45  Europe CL  FC Chelsea - FC Schalke 04 AHC -1 @ 1,78 (H) 3-0
06.11.2013  20:45  Europe CL  Borussia Dortmund - FC Arsenal OVER 3 @ 1,89 0-1


Plan Picks:

02.11.2013  13:45  England PR  Newcastle United - FC Chelsea AHC +1 @ 1,90 (H) 2-0
02.11.2013  16:00  England PR  Manchester City - Norwich City AHC -1,75 @ 1,87 (H) 7-0
02.11.2013  16:00  England PR  West Ham United - Aston Villa AHC +0,5 @ 1,80 (A) 0-0

1.FC Köln - Union Berlin

At the end of 13th Round in 2.Bundesliga the top match takes place in Rhein Energie Stadium this evening. With leader 1.FC Köln and the second Union Berlin meet the two best teams table wise each other for the show down today. Both are even and only separated by three goals what makes it more as interesting. For both teams thereby offers this match an opportunity to get away from the rest with a win. Although Greuther Fürth and Kaiserslautern celebrated victories a win would help to extend the lead to place three and four to four and five Points. The Winner make a big step forward here.  

Favorite on paper, not at least because of the home advantage of the 1.FC Köln, which, however has some problems at home this season and could win only twice in their own stadium so far. In the last home game against TSV 1860 Munich they had some problems because their strong offensive line had lack of space and were not able to create a lot. It was only because 1860 played really clever and defend very well what ended in a goalless draw. Having learned from this game, maybe Coach Stöger is just likely to start with a 4-2-3-1 with only one striker what was very good at the end of the game to 1860. This system should help to get better in the game against an expected defensive minded Union side. Whether Patrick Helmes and Anthony Ujah first need on the bench remains to be seen. At the last 1-0 win to Bielefeld could neither convince. Definitely back in starting lineup will be youngster Yannick Gerhardt, who was very active in Bielefeld after coming in and increased the performance of the whole team immediately. He plays beside Lehmann in central midfield today. Additional winning goal scorer Peszko will certainly stand in the starting lineup this time and let the joker role behind him. Whatever Coach Stöger decides to play with one or two attacker it can be that Marcel Risse or Daniel Halfar sits on bench first.   

Union Berlin has not lost the previous six away games this season and won three times on the road what is an incredible number for them if you take a look on past seasons. Even in Cologne Coach Neuhaus with his team of course not want to hide but has to replace the important midfield player Mattuschka who booked his fifth yellow card and is suspended here. He leaves a huge gap is he the man for the standard situations what rape them an important weapon. How dangerous these situations are you could see in the last match against Aue where he scored the winning goal with. He will be replaced most probably from Martin Dausch who stands in the starting lineup already against Aue where he had to replace Köhler who was ill. Köhler is back now and will take his usual position on the left offensive line behind the alone attacker Simon Terodde. The Ex-Cologne player should be huge motivated and aiming for the win today. Therefore Dausch moves from the wing in the center and plays on Mattuschka’s position. Otherwise no other changes expected.   

Werder Bremen - Hannover 96

Here we have a match where both teams are more or less out of form. Or in some other words both teams have a lot of problems in the past matches and they did not bring their normal level on the pitch, above all in offensive both are very poor. Therefore it will be the important game that looking all.

After Bremen's wins to begin of the season all spoke that they do better this season but they played only bottom teams with Braunschweig and Augsburg and in both were they the weaker team. Now, a few Rounds later all looks like the same as last season. They have a lot of problems from defense till offense. This means that Coach Dutt has a lot to do to bring his team back on track but it can be a long way as the recent matches were not very impressive. In defensive they made to many mistakes, the midfield is not able to create and in attack they miss almost all strikers that Coach Dutt counts on a system without a striker in Wolfsburg but this was more or less a disaster. With 12 Points they are not far away from the red zone what let them not much air for something. Also with only 9 goals scored in 10 matches shows were the problems lie. At home in 4 matches 4 goals scored but if you take the results you see, vs. Augsburg 1-0, Nürnberg 3-3 and the two others they were not able to score. Today again with some changes because some players are not available. In defensive line Prödl is out and he will be replaced by Lukimya who is not the safest here. Always good for a lot of mistakes. In attack they must replace once again both Di Santos and Pedersen what means that no striker is available. In this case Dutt must search for the right balance here, count he again on a system without a striker or let he one of the youngsters from 2nd team play this part. With Kobylanski or Selke he has some options but are they able to play on such high level in such an important match?

On the other side Hannover 96 is only good at home but away from home they are absolutely harmless and they bring not one toe on the pitch. They lost all their four matches away from home and they were not able to score a single goal in all this four matches. What is incredible with such a good offensive line they have. Nevertheless they must walk on and looking forward to make it better in the upcoming matches. It was also a lot of trouble after the last home matches to Hoffenheim where two players from H96 were sent off. Both are missing here suspended. This makes things not easier for Coach Slomka but he brings a good lineup on the pitch. For suspended defender Marcelo moves Sane back in central defensive but also some other options are possible with Hoffmann and Stindl. Some others like Bittencourt or Schlaudraff for the offensive or Schmiedebach in central midfield. Although H96 miss with Diouf, Ya Konan, Marcelo, Felipe, Pander and Franca a lot they have still a good squad for this match. From match to match they did better away from home, the best was last one in Dortmund where they were very close to get something. I am very confident that they continue this way. And overall it is not possible that they do not score today. This is a match were they start scoring away from home and if we see Bremen's offensive problems at the moment it is not obvious that they can crap the first Point or more here.

1860 München - Dynamo Dresden

After only six Points from their first six games under new coach Friedhelm Funkel 1860 Munich is a little afraid in the last few days. Not only to play again no role in promotion race, no even more to get involved in relegation battle. So that at least ca be avoided the last scenario they should try to get the win against bottom team Dynamo Dresden today. It is exremely important in view of only two Points ahead of the relegation zone. However, Dynamo comes with a lot of confident in the bag and of seven Points from their last three games and also a great support from around 8.000 fans is expected in the Allianz Arena which could go even with 1860 with a win.

After the disappointing results of the past few weeks 1860 is searching for the second victory under Coach Funkel after the 3-1 to Erzgebirge Aue on 21. September. As this win was with two strikers up front Coach Funkel thinking to change here and let Lauth and Friend play what means maybe a bit more dangerous as they could not be much dangerous in recent matches and the last punch was missing here. They are also not known as a scoring team what you can see if you take a look in some stats. For several years they have a lot of problmes in this area. They scored only 9 goals what means an average from under one and this number allow you not to win much. The team compared to the 1-2 defeat remain unchanged, only Tomasov can be on bench while Friend starts here.

Once again Dynamo Coach Janßen must changes his starting lineup again. Compared to the important win in derby to Energie Cottbus 1-0 midfield player Trojan got injured again although he gave his comeback in this match. He misses with knee injury and therefore the defenisve midfield part is open but Christoph Menz who had and head injury against Cottbus is ready to use this situation for a comeback in starting lineup immediately. On the right wing can play Gueye what he did against Cottbus after Menz injury. So the problems are more in defense as the offensive looked unchanged to the last match. All players are ready also Pote who scored after long long time and this maybe gives him an additional boost now. Dresden was one of the hard nut in Munich in the past and they was able to get here some in the past.

1.FC Nürnberg - SC Freiburg

FCN's new Coach Verbeek

Wow, what a match here. Both stand on the bottom of the table and both were not able to win a single match after 10 Rounds. Ok, Freiburg maybe has a lot to invest according to their big lose from half of the team before the season and also the additional EL matches what cost a lot of energy. On the other side Nürnberg find not a way to win so far but played often draw, this was maybe to less and they changed their Coach, but nothing changed in results as the new man on the sideline got also a draw in his first match in Stuttgart last Friday. Nevertheless the team look a bit better and he wants to force the style of play much more as in the past, he wants to have more ball possession as he counts almost on the same style as van Gaal, ok both are from Netherlands. Maybe Nürnberg is able to bring this on pitch but their biggest problem is not solved then anyway. They need far to much that they score a goal or they are more as harmless in creating chances. Overall this can change too if they are able to be as dominant as they can in their play and sooner or later they are able to get much more dangerous. The offensive players are there fore sure. They have some quick players in their rows and this can be the key anyway if they play some counter attacks. The goal in Stuttgart was a good sign about this and they played fast and in this action Drmic finished the good play with an excellent goal. Defensive row looked compact, and they allowed not much against Stuttgart. This give a lot of hope that they are able to win sooner or later matches in BL. If they want to come out from the red zone they must begin as far as they can.

This Freiburg team is far away from last season, ok they invest a lot and they try a lot but they are more as harmless in the past matches and they made to many mistakes what cost Points additional. In EL they played well but were never able to score the second goal and why they open after 1-0 lead to conceded the equalizer probably remain a mystery. Also the three important mistakes from keeper Baumann against Hamburg on sunday were absolutely inexplicable. Coach Streich was always ahead of his team but after the last games he departed from them. Maybe he does not know what to do that success comes back to Freiburg. Overall they are to harmless this season and no know from the players is able to lead this team. Ok, most of the guys are young and they must learn from day to day or even from match to match but the situation is getting worse now. To begin it was much better as in the past, they are all nervous and make a lot of mistakes now and exactly they do not need this at the moment. They must be as professional as they can and allow not such easy goals. With this important match ahead, it is almost a must win situation when they no longer want to be stuck in red zone.

Overall the stats speaks clear for Freiburg but Nürnberg changed their coach and this give them some boost too. Nevertheless since 8 matches is Nürnberg winless against Freiburg (0-3-5) and they could only win 3 from 16 BL games (3-5-8). Both teams try to get the win here but both are more very ineffective in scoring goals but on the other side both conceded a lot. Maybe this can be a good opportunity to get involved in this match after 20-30 minutes for goals. If one team can take the lead this match can be very open what give use some good in running action.

Recommend Bet: OVER 2,5 @ 2,00 (3 Units)

Hamburger SV - Bor. M'Gladbach

After Hamburg fired Fink and they signed a new one with van Marwijk success is back in Hamburg despite they are much more successful on the road as at home at the moment. But nevertheless they are scoring for free at the moment. In Nürnberg 6-0, at home Stuttgart 3-3 and in Freiburg 3-0. The whole team work much better now although the defensive problems are there but as the Coach said. He is more for entertaining as for as lousy 1-0. Therefore the show will go on in the next matches, weeks. Why not, the offensive potential is there with players like Beister (scored more goals (3) and has more assists (4) already as last season), van der Vaart (has already one goal more as last season), Calhanoglu (the youngster is new in team but plays absolutely great in his first season), Pierre Michel Lasogga (on loan from Hertha but he did a great job so far and he is with 7 goals in 5 matches the absolutely hero in offense). All in very good shape, and why should van Marwijk stoppt them? The only problem is the defensive row where Djourou got injured and was replaced by young Sobiech in last match. Ok, Freiburg was not able to bring both youngsters in danger Sobiech (21 years old) and Tah (17 years old). Overall I expect a much tougher match against the offensive giants from Gladbach. Maybe van Marwijk counts on Westermann in central back but he has no alternatives for the back wing where Westermann played for injured Diekmeier already. In tnis case very nice to see how van Marwijk decides here.

High flying Gladbach came from a great match against Frankfurt, ok not many resistance in this one. And they are only high flying at home, away from home it is much different as they were not able to get much so far. In 5 matches only one Point and this was in Augsburg some weeks ago. Coach Favre is not very pleased about but he has to walk on and try to get things running here. If they get only 60% of them on the pitch what they are playing at home with good and fast counter attacks and a lot of scoring opportunities they should be more as able to win sooner or later also on the road. The offensive boys are in great form where Herrmann, Arango, Raffael and Kruse did a great job so far. They can be always dangerous and create some and all are very quick. The only problems they have is again in defensive where the next defender is out for some weeks. With Dominguez was the first normal defender out before the match against Frankfurt, now his replacement Brouwers got injured and will miss some weeks. A big blow as with these guys two of their 3 defenders are out injured. Good news is only that third defender Stranzl returns from suspension and move into the team immediately. But who plays beside him? Again a big question, against Frankfurt wing player Jantschke move into the middle while young Korb replaced him on the wing. Overall they can get much more problems here with an in form offensive line from Hamburg.

All in all if this encounter has no goals, then I no longer understand the world of football. The facts are clear, both miss a lot in defenisve line and both offenisve rows work very well. Therefore it can be only one bet here and this is clearly for the OVER, nothing else.

Recommend Bet: OVER 2,75 @ 1,85 (3 Units)

1.FC Kaiserslautern - FC St. Pauli

In am important match hosts 1.FC Kaiserslautern St. Pauli today. Both are tied with 19 Points on Position four and five. Since Coach Kosta Runjaic stands on the sideline FCK is unbeaten so far. But with him they lost some Points in the past due to many draws in matches where they dominated and created a lot but were not able to use their big opportunities. On the other side St. Pauli is much stronger on the road comapred to home as the last wins in Ingolstadt and Fürth shows. Of course they want continue their run away from home and get the third win in a row there. However, no team could win so far on the „Betzenberg“ this season. Like two weeks ago in derby against KSC again the stadium will be sold out.

Coach Michael Frontzeck is well aware of his team and he knows that it is always difficult for the visiting team to compete in this special atmosphere on „Betze“. However they have proven that they know how to do it as they won with 2-1 last season here. They won also the home game to FCK last season and let them work on a small Series maybe. Coach Frontzeck wants to continue his way and style and this was in the past away matches more and more defending defending defending and if they get the ball they want to run fast counter attacks. This look very easy but it is hard work but the players they have in the rows are absolutely great for this play. This is the key of less success at home, they do not like if they must make the game. Away from home the style of their play is much different and much more for them. Nevertheless they want not to defend around their own box, no they want to try to be as active as they can. This was very good so far away and this should be continued. Some good news from injured side as with Mohr stands a defender in the squad after long injury and also Schindler and Thy are ready for today again. A question mark is still behind defneder Schachten who had to take a break because of gastrointestinal virus. Sure not in the squad are Verhoek and youngster Maier, both important offenisve weapons are definitely not available because of muscular problems.

After two disappointing draws Coach Runjaic said: „Maybe we need to put our actions even more patience and calm on the day“. This was accoridng to the waste of chances in both matches where they normally has been the winner. Maybe some changes are done by him today. Of course the offensive worked good but the last thing was not there. Especially in midfield they must be more effective and bring both strikers in good positions. After Fortounis good play on monday it seems that Gaus gets a break today as he could not convince in the past matches. Also the position in central midfield beside Karl he did not find the right partner so far. Maybe he tests again some today. Both used players with Ring and Borysiuk looked a bit out of form and therefore he search for the next one here. Jenssen played in Bochum on this position but with average success what brings Orban or Alushi who returns after long injury time in good position for the starting eleven today. All players are available, only a small question mark stands behind the use from 24-years old left back Löwe who was injured at the shoulder on monday but trained already with the team on wednesday and is in the squad. If he must pass, Dominique Heintz will fill the open position.

Some facts to 1.BL - Round 11

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Borussia Dortmund - VfB Stuttgart

- Stuttgart is since 6 matches winless against Dortmund (0-4-2).
- BvB won all their first five matches at home. This happened last 2003/04.
- In this season they could win 6 in a row before they failed (2 times 94/95 + 2003/04)
- No team scored more goals as Dortmund and 1899 Hoffenheim (25).
- Also no team had so many shots on traget as Dortmund with 219, next team 189.
- Dortmund has the best defensive at home with only 3 goals allowed, overall 2nd best.
- Stuttgart did not lose a match since Schneider is on the sideline for VfB.
- The last 4 matches ended all draw in Dortmund.
- In the last 6 matches between these two clubs was not one home win.

VfR Aalen - Fortuna Düsseldorf

An important match for both sides according to their table position. Both are neighbors in table with 16 Points but with this number they are only 4 Points ahead of the red zone. According to the results from weekend all bottom teams collected some Points and coming closer now. Aalen played very harmless in Frankfurt while Fortuna were trashed from Paderborn 1-6 at home. Therefore both looking for better times and also want some rehabilitation from last weekend. An interesting match overall where the winner can climb a bit in table.

VfR Aalen is known for their style of play and this has not changed much although with Ruthenbeck a new and unknown Coach from lower division stands on the sideline now. But they play the same counter attack system as they did under Hasenhüttl. He does not count on ball possession or so on, he wants only defend and go for fast and successful counter. This is their style and they used it very well but at home they have still some problems because against defensive minded teams they have no idea so far how to overcome them. Nevertheless the offensive performance was not the best in last match what let Coach Ruthenbeck think to change some positions here. He has almost all players available and he can choose from a lot and the quality goes up from day to day in training. One of the winners is Mössmer who made a big step what let him move into the starting lineup while Buballa must on bench. This can change for this match as Coach announced changes, Buballa plays too and additional Valentini. This means that some of the starters from last weekend are in danger to lose their place in starting lineup. With this move he wants to be much more dangerous in offensive as in the past.

Wow, never seen such a bad and mega worse performance form Düsseldorf in their own stadium. With 1-6 they lost at home to Paderborn what made the trouble in Düsseldorf perfect. Nothing worked in this encounter although they equalized and had the chance to score the leading goal but missed and in defensive Ramirez and all the others had and incredible bad day and they made mistake after mistake and gave some goal gifts to Paderborn too. Nevertheless Paderborn played well and they were by far the quicker team and with the 4 goals man Saglik they had the best man in their rows anyway. Coach Büskens and his team had a lot to do this week. Hopefully they can turn things around but this means that they have to play much more compact and do easy things. According to the last big lose Coach Büskens changes his team on some positions for sure but of course he must change because with Schmidtgal and Bodzek they have two important players unavailable. Both are out with injuries for longer time now. Overal they have to do some small steps to comeback after this huge defeat.