Fortuna Düsseldorf - FSV Mainz 05

Newcomer Düsseldorf is on a good way to avoid relegation or get in trouble because they are 9 points above the drop zone and therefore they are still without any problems. This is only because they can count on their excellent home strength so far. They lost only vs. Bayern Munich 0-5, VfL Wolfsburg 1-4 and FC Augsburg 2-3. But the last one was more or less unlucky as they made a lot of mistakes and decided this match almost self. If they continue like the past two matches at home I am sure that they are able to get something here too. According to their weak away performances they have to get back and collect a few points to be safe in the end. They were a bit unlucky against Schalke last weekend as they played not such bad, of course more defensive but why should they play more open or offensive on the road? This is their style and they drive very good with also in home matches where they count on fast counter attacks as well. It is therefore very surprising that they had to accept 2 goals by corner or free kick against Schalke. They showed no significant attention and let Schalke’s Defender Matip two times unguarded who could score so easily. The mentality and attitude of the team is fine, because they never give up and try to give all what is in their power.

A lot to talk about Mainz as coach Tuchel gave some attacking surface with his interview under the week where he mentioned that his team was disadvantaged too much in some matches in the past. But nevertheless there are again to discuss a few actions and decisions from referee after they knock out of the cup against Freiburg on Tuesday. They lead till minute 85. 2-0 but conceded two late goals and lost in extra time 2-3. Their start was very good and they scored twice but after their lead more and more Freiburg controlled the game and if they had not waste so much they should have rewarded earlier in this match. On the other side they were a bit unlucky as right back wing got a red card and they had to play more than 30 minutes with one man less. This help Freiburg a lot and Mainz could only defend and were not able to get dangerous again. With this match they lost a lot of power but the resting days should be enough to recover. The only problem they have that their performance away from home are not so good or better they got not the results so far. With only 3 wins they are one of the weaker sides there as they could only win against weak home teams like Wolfsburg and Fürth while Frankfurt was a derby for them and additional an exception.        

Overall I see this a bit different as the bookmakers, they put Mainz as favorite but I mentioned it already that they are not an away monster with their 3 wins only. Sure they are close to Top 6 and have some class in their rows but I doubt that they can overcome easily a team who has their strength more at home. Düsseldorf is more known as fighting team where each player put everything in order to succeed. With their defending style they try to hold the opponent away or give less space but if they have the ball they look for fast and good counter attacks to hurt Mainz, of course. They got one important weapon back with their top scorer Kruse who was out vs. Schalke with flu. On the other side Mainz invested a lot in the past matches where they were either one man more or less (less against Augsburg, more against Wolfsburg, less against Freiburg) on the pitch additional the 120 minutes in Cup. All these games cost a lot of energy which can affect the tiredness of some players. Unfortunately, this can not be compensated easily, since the possibilities of changes are limited. Over should be also an option as I expecting Mainz to score as well as their offensive looked not so bad with Szalai, Parker, Müller, Ede or Ivanschitz. GL

Recommend Pick: Fortuna Düsseldorf AHC +0,25 @ 1,82 + OVER 2,25 @ 1,86 (each 3 Units)